Counterpoint Research forecasts that smartphone shipments in 2023 will fall by 6% year-over-year to 1.15 billion devices, signifying the most disappointing performance in the past 10 years. Counterpoint additionally predicts that Apple may capture the top position globally in terms of yearly shipments for the first time ever. This is possibly in response to the September unveiling of their latest flagship phone, the iPhone 15, which could lend it substantial momentum before the completion of the year.
Counterpoint Research said in a report on Thursday that this year is expected to be the worst in a decade for global smartphone shipments. This is due to a negative impact from the U.S. and China, however Apple could become the biggest player in terms of shipments, as its high-end iPhone sales remain robust. It should be noted that shipments are not the same as sales and represent the number of smartphones vendors ship out to retailers. Counterpoint Research anticipates 1.15 billion devices will be shipped in 2023, which is a 6% decrease year-on-year. Furthermore, Asia is one of the main causes for the lack of growth due to economic setbacks in China, as well as declines in emerging markets across the broader region.
China's economy this year hasn't seen the expected quick bounceback, and consumers are still being careful with their money. The Chinese mobile phone market, which once sold 450 million devices a year in its heyday, is now down to 270 million a year, a major factor in the shrinking global smartphone sales figures, according to Karn Chauhan of Counterpoint Research. North America is particularly responsible for undermining a worldwide recovery, with the first half of the year showing "disappointing" results and predicting an overall double-digit decrease, as Counterpoint states. Even with a steady job market and reduced inflation, people are reluctant to upgrade their phones, setting global replacement rates at all-time highs.
Despite a decrease in overall smartphone shipments, the premium end of the market with higher priced devices has maintained its strength. Apple is set to launch the iPhone 15 in September, which could give the company a strong presence going into the year-end. Counterpoint Research's North American Research Director, Jeff Fieldhack, stated that this will be an opportunity for carriers to try to take customers of high value. The analyst firm also believes that Apple's shipments will experience a moderate year-on-year growth as a result of the premiumization trend in markets such as China and other Asian countries.
Apple has the capability to play in the premium segment of the smartphone market and could turn out to be the biggest smartphone maker of the year. According to Fieldhack, this could come down to a matter of days' worth of sales. The U.S. company is attempting to capitalize on Indian customers' proclivity for premium devices by opening a few physical stores in the country and by CEO Tim Cook's visit to the country. The success of the iPhone 15 and the growth in non-core iPhone markets will be critical in determining whether Apple surpasses Samsung in terms of annual shipments.
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