Commentators CNBC have talked to, who are both within and without the crypto sector, have given various prognoses for the cost of bitcoin in 2024, extending from $60,000 to $500,000. Executives in the business have begun a new bull run, mainly based on two components - the bitcoin "halving" and the potential authorization of a bitcoin exchange-traded fund in America. 2023 was marked by the termination of criminal investigations of FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried, as well as Binance and its originator Changpeng Zhao.
In 2023, bitcoin experienced monumental growth with a 152% increase for the year. A vast number of commentators, both within and beyond the cryptocurrency realm, envision further progress. After a record-breaking 2021, bitcoin had a troublesome 2022; it was blemished by the fall of prominent entities, liquidity challenges, and bankruptcy issues. The FTX exchange, previously one of the world's main crypto exchanges, and its founder Sam Bankman-Fried were both held culpable from all seven criminal indictments launched by the U.S. feds. Additionally, in 2023, Changpeng Zhao, the Chief Executive of Binance, pled guilty to criminal accusations and was ousted from his position; this was part of a $4.3 billion compromise with the Department of Justice.
With the two major cases behind them, crypto industry executives see an opportunity to put a stop to the bad behavior of two of its leading figures. Consequently, a resurgence of interest in the crypto markets has sparked talk of a new bull run, which is expected to be stoked by two things: the upcoming bitcoin "halving" and a possible approval of a bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the U.S.
The halving, which happens every four years, is programmed into bitcoin's code and essentially reduces the rewards reaped by miners. This limits the number of bitcoins in circulation, with 21 million being the maximum. Historically speaking, these halvings have coincided with an increase in bitcoin prices.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission may be close to giving the greenlight on the first-ever bitcoin ETF, which would allow investors to gain exposure to the digital currency without having to acquire and store it directly. This could pave the way for larger financial institutions to become involved, and the industry is hoping it will attract a wide range of investors.
Unsurprisingly, these developments have triggered some ambitious forecasts for bitcoin's value. Here is a short selection of opinions.
In 2022, Mark Mobius predicted that bitcoin would fall to $20,000 while it was trading above $28,000. His later prognostication was that it would decrease to $10,000, which remained unchanged in 2023. This did not end up being the case, as bitcoin priced increased. For 2024, Mobius revealed to CNBC that bitcoin could increase to $60,000 by year-end. He pointed out that no explanation existed for the inference other than the likelihood of a bitcoin ETF which "has intensified attention" in the digital currency.
Yang, who is the chief economist of crypto mining firm Bit Mining, predicted that bitcoin could surge to a peak of $75,000 by 2024. He attributed the potential growth to the potential approval of a bitcoin ETF, which could lead to an influx of institutional investments as well as the bitcoin halving in May 2024, resulting in a reduced supply. Yang expressed his thoughts in an emailed note, stating that he expected the Bitcoin to be trading between $25K and $75K in 2024, and $45K to $130K in 2025. He noted, however, that while high prices are possible, investors could be negatively impacted by market volatility and the human tendencies of fear and greed.
Yang asserted that the ETF authorization is still the biggest event for bitcoin in 2024, although investors need to exercise vigilance regarding when it is implemented reflecting the bankruptcies of major crypto enterprises such as Luna and FTX, and considering it is an election year and crypto will likely become more of an issue that affects the political realm. He went on to say that timing the market is a daunting task, though a more prudent approach would be to gather assets during bear markets and take profits amid bull markets, for those who did not get the opportunity to accumulate early on.
James Butterfill, the head of research at CoinShares, declared that the field of digital assets is set to experience "significant change" in 2024, a consequence of the potential approval of bitcoin ETFs in the United States. In an email to CNBC, Butterfill stated that this long-awaited development is expected to widen the pool of cryptocurrency investors and further link them to traditional financial markets. He estimated that if the money under management (approximately US$3 billion) increases by 20%, Bitcoin prices could climb up to US$80,000. In addition, Butterfill mentioned that the situation regarding interest rates being cut is likely to have a strong effect in driving the Bitcoin price further. He clarified that, while the halving is already factored into the price of Bitcoin, other aspects, especially interest rate cuts, could be instrumental in determining its value in the future.
Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of a cryptocurrency exchange called Nexo, is a prominent bitcoin bull; he predicted that bitcoin will reach $100,000 in 2024. In 2022, he had made a similar claim, yet in that same year the price of bitcoin declined drastically, thus he refrained from any further price speculations. However, last December he reiterated his prognosis, pointing to the halving and the possibility of multiple bitcoin ETFs being approved. He expressed, “My prediction for 2024 is that, with the support of the Bitcoin halving and the approval of ETF proposals, Bitcoin will reach $100,000, likely even surpassing this figure in 2025.” He further shared that the greatest profits will come from digital tokens and projects “which are still in obscurity.”
In November, Standard Chartered reaffirmed the prediction of a $100,000 bitcoin price that it made in April. The bank cited the approval of various ETFs and the upcoming halving as contributing factors that will help increase the value of bitcoin.
In 2022, University of Sussex professor of finance Carol Alexander accurately predicted that bitcoin would drop to roughly $10,000. Her forecast for 2023 proved spot-on as well, with bitcoin reaching a yearly high of approximately $44,700 in early December. Alexander was cited in CNBC claiming that during the first quarter of 2024, bitcoin trading will remain within the range of $40,000 to $55,000 as a result of professional traders introducing instability. Alexander additionally remarked that the progress of bitcoin ETF approval hinges on the SEC settling charges against Coinbase and Binance, which the SEC did in 2023.
Alexander suggested that resolution of the charges would likely come in the second or third quarter, after which the introduction of ETFs will cause the value of bitcoin to reach a fresh record high of $70,000. From that point onwards, the price would depend on the capabilities of providers such as Blackrock and Fidelity to secure their market makers in order to form ETFs and also protect against any price distortions which could trigger excessive volatility. He estimated that provided the market makers can contain volatility, the price of bitcoin could surpass $100,000 by the end of 2024.
Matrixport, the self-proclaimed crypto financial services firm, announced in November that based on their inflation model, due to the macro environment being a favorable tailwind for cryptocurrency combined with the likely interest rate cuts expected from the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin is projected to skyrocket to $63,140 by April of 2024 and $125,000 by the end of 2021. It is pointed out that the decrease in inflation and the monetary support it will carry will be a huge contributor to Bitcoin's impressive surge in the following years.
The discussion of the monetary support for Bitcoin being a positive trend has prompted many commentators to agree that the easing of policy is beneficial for Bitcoin, as it is seen as a risky asset. Other opinions lean towards Bitcoin being a form of “safe haven” to turn to during times of turbulence, though a lot of people don’t buy into the idea.
CoinFund's managing partner, Seth Ginns, stated in an email to CNBC that bitcoin's inverse correlation with the dollar and real yields, both of which are decreasing, and the expected post-launch of the BTC spot ETF as well as the likely approval of ETH (ether) spot ETFs in 2024, will set forth a powerful inflow of investors. He added that the industry is in the process of becoming "regulatory normalized". Ginns believes that the next cycle of bitcoin could reach a price of $1 million per coin; however, he considers $250,000 to $500,000 to be a more realistic expectation for 2024.
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