During China's "Golden Week" holiday, domestic tourism experienced a resurgence, nearly equaling the pre-pandemic levels. According to Morgan Stanley analysts, per capita spending in tourism was very close to the 2019 level of 98%, far better than the 85% seen during earlier festival periods this year. As the nation's upward momentum from the Covid-19 outbreak moderates, partially due to an unsteady real estate market, tourism shows signs of recovery.
In the eight-day Golden Week holiday that ended on Friday, domestic tourism in China recorded revenues of 753.43 billion yuan (around $103.24 billion), which was roughly the same as recorded in 2019, according to the Chinese Ministry of Culture and Tourism. There were 826 million domestic trips during the holiday, up 4.1% from 2019 levels, but this was below the earlier prediction of 896 million trips. This marks the first time since the end of the Covid-19 restrictions late last year that domestic tourism has reached pre-pandemic levels, as noted in a note from Morgan Stanley's Chief China Economist Robin Xing and team. Overseas trips, however, have yet to fully recover.
Morgan Stanley analysts reported that spending in China during the extended Golden Week holiday was 98% of 2019 levels on a per capita basis—much higher than the 85% figure seen during earlier holidays this year. This is likely the result of the extra-long holiday, as Beijing declared an 8-day break from the end of September to October 6. With the exception of a few businesses, many closed for the entirety of the holiday, resulting in more people choosing to travel overseas. The National Immigration Administration recorded 11.8 million trips coming in and out of China, with an average of nearly 1.5 million daily—85.1% of 2019 levels. Popular destinations included Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, and South Korea, while Europe saw the most growth in number of tourists from China's Labor Day holiday in May. On a related note, Trip.com Group's CEO Jane Sun reported that visa wait times, which can range from 2-6 months for Europe, have kept many in China from traveling internationally as much as they would like.
CNBC Pro has plenty of information about China's 'Golden Week', offering three recommended places for spending and spotlighting a stock with a potential 95% upside. Even when shore-based competition has cooled, innovative EV firms still battle intensely for market share. Additionally, AI applications are coming to the fore in terms of monetization.
China is now in the midst of its highly anticipated 'Golden Week' and three popular holiday destinations are anticipated to see an influx of tourists. Additionally, one particular stock is speculated to offer up to an estimated 95% return on investment. Even with the recent economic downturn, Chinese companies remain highly competitive and EV (electric vehicle) firms are pushing to gain a major foothold in the industry. Finally, the integration of AI technology has become increasingly popular in China, offering monetization opportunities that shouldn't be overlooked.
The Chinese tourism industry has seen an increase in activity, although the nation's economic revival from the pandemic has weakened, partially due to a drop in the property market. The National Day Golden Week tourism data, together with the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which still remains over 50, implies a lag in services recovery, but that it is still continuing. Goldman Sachs analysts stated in a recent report that extra policy actions may be necessary in order to sustain consumption and services, keeping in mind the prevailing situation of the property market and the continued loss of customer confidence. The analysts have yet to alter their prediction of China's GDP this year to 5.4%.
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