By 2030, it is estimated that more than half of all cars sold in the United States will be electric vehicles, leading to an elevated strain on our nation's electric grid which is not built to accommodate a world powered by fossil fuels. As outlined in the Rapid Energy Policy Evaluation and Analysis Toolkit (REPEAT) from Princeton University, it is predicted that domestic electricity demand will grow by 18% by 2030 and 38% by 2035, signifying a noteworthy departure from the small, 5% rate of increase experienced over the last decade. Rob Gramlich, founder and president of Grid Strategies, a transmission policy group, said "So we've got a lot of power demand coming to this country when we really didn't have any for the last, like, 25 years". Though many facets of society are transitioning away from fossil fuel use, such as household appliances and space heating, the transportation industry has been the primary contributor to the projected need for additional electricity. According to Princeton's data, light-duty vehicles (excluding large trucks and aviation) will require up to 3,360% more electricity in 2035 than today. For this shift to be effective in reducing emissions, it must go hand in hand with the building of renewable energy sources. Gramlich further comments, "So we have both supply-side and demand-side drivers of big grid needs". To meet this considerable need, the grid must endure drastic changes, such as installation of high-voltage transmission lines to convey electricity from rural wind and solar power plants to densely populated centers, upgrading of distribution lines and transformers for "last-mile" delivery of electricity, and various hardware such as inverters that allow customers with solar panels, home batteries, and EVs to return energy to the grid. This is a major undertaking, with Kevala forecasting in a survey conducted for the California Public Utilities Commission that California alone has to spend $50 billion to upgrade its distribution grid by 2035 in order to reach its EV targets.
Electric vehicles are highly power-hungry. If we compare them with common household appliances, the electricity consumption of a Tesla Model 3, driven 14,000 miles per year, is similar to that of an electric water heater for the same period of time, and about 10 times more than that of an energy-efficient refrigerator. Vehicles like the Ford F-150 Lightning require more electricity than a big house's central air conditioning unit. Lydia Krefta, director of clean energy transportation at PG&E, declared that the utility has already connected 470,000 EVs in their Northern and Central California service area, and they are aiming at 3 million by 2030 - a seventh of all the EVs in the US. The task is quite daunting due to the 4-year funding cycle for grid upgrades. This 2021 period won't be enough to cover the requirements, Krefta said.
A lot of the analysis that went into PG&E's request for numerous state and federal grants was based on 2019 or 2020 forecasts which were not taking into account some of the potential growth seen now. Kevala CEO Aram Shumavon has argued that if the grid infrastructure fails to keep up with EV usage it could lead to charging difficulties like long queues or limited access. Furthermore, an overly taxed grid is more prone to extreme weather events and blackouts, as California learnt in 2020. Bringing more energy sources online is a necessary step, with green options preferable, however due to the remote nature of the best solar and wind resources, this requires the construction of new transmission lines. According to Gramlich, while these upgrades are taking place, new lines are hardly being built and $20 to $30 million should be spent annually. Building new transmission lines is complex as it requires the agreement of multiple counties, states and utility services, as well as approval through the permitting process. Princeton's REPEAT project has estimated that the Inflation Reduction Act could lead to 1 billion tons of emissions cutting by 2030, however, should transmission infrastructure buildout not more than double its historic yearly growth rate, over 80% of this reduction would be lost.
Attempts to swiftly upgrade energy infrastructure are in progress. In May, U.S. Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia advanced a permitting bill which President Biden endorsed. This legislation would accelerate permitting for diverse energy projects, including those for fossil fuels, which certain Democratic politicians see as excessively supportive of those industries. Even with speeding up the permitting process and spending heavily on transmission, it will take years to set up the essential infrastructure. During this interval, residential solar and battery systems, as well as EV battery packs with reversible charging capabilities, can help sustain the grid by providing energy to and from it. Tesla will be providing this capability in the near future, as present models like the Ford F-150 Lightning and Nissan Leaf already do.
Emphasis is likely to be placed on energy efficiency and timing of energy use. As an example, PG&E is trying to establish ways to optimize charging for large electric vehicle populations. According to Krefta, "We are trying to work with some of these businesses that require a large load and offer flexible load constraints that allow charging fifty EVs at 7pm but the entire fleet of one hundred at 2am". They anticipate that constraints on charging times are only temporary, and PG&E is looking to motivate customers with dynamic pricing, in which electricity prices are higher at the time of greatest usage and cheaper during off-peak periods. Furthermore, they are working with automakers to create means by which electric vehicles can benefit the grid. Some questions they are asking are "What needs to be done to be able to use the vehicle to provide electricity to your home? How can the vehicle be used to charge during times when renewables are abundant, low-cost, and clean, and then discharge to the grid in the evening?" Krefta believes that addressing such inquiries will lead to the "green grid of the future". If you would like to learn more about how the U.S. grid can be prepared for an increase in electric vehicles, watch the accompanying video.
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