For the past few years, the rivalry between the US and China has been marked by a dispute over technological supremacy. The US has tried to stop China from obtaining crucial tech such as semiconductors, while China has strived to become more self-reliant and to break away from US tech. Now, according to analysts, general AI, the technology that lies behind OpenAI's ChatGPT, is likely to become a new arena of contention between the two countries.
One analyst suggests that generative artificial intelligence technology, such as that utilized by ChatGPT, may become one of the arenas of competition in the technology war between the U.S. and China. After Blinken's meeting with President Xi Jinping this week, U.S. sanctions and business pressures on China are expected to remain in place, Abishur Prakash, CEO of Toronto-based advisory firm The Geopolitical Business, told CNBC. As both nations recognize AI as a significant technology, it is likely to be included in their push and pull.
Donald Trump, when he still held the presidency, sparked a trade war with China in which technology was used as a bargaining chip. Washington's strategy has relied on blocking China's access to technologies considered to be essential, such as semiconductors. Last year, the U.S. made a significant escalation by introducing wide-ranging regulations which aimed to impede China's ability to obtain major components and chips necessary to build advanced processors, threatening the development of the country's chip industry. The U.S. has also convinced its allies to oppose Chinese access to tech products.
The U.S. has sought to prop up its homegrown technology, such as semiconductors, with measures like the $52 billion Chips and Science Act. Washington is expected to shift attention to generative AI. Paul Triolo, the technology policy lead at Albright Stonebridge, informed CNBC that "there will likely be more attempts coming from Washington to target certain applications in China, notably generative AI, in the coming year." He went on to say that "this comes as the Biden administration assesses which technologies could benefit China's military advancements, and which could also boost Chinese companies' advancement in generative AI." Generative AI has to do with technologies like ChatGPT, which generate content when prompted by users.
In order to function effectively, AI requires substantial data training. Generative AI is based upon large language models, thus demanding an immense amount of language input in order to comprehend and react to inquiries from users. The processing of this data necessitates large quantities of computing power, which is driven by specialized semiconductors, like those sold by U.S. company Nvidia, viewed as the leader of this market. Part of the U.S.'s current restrictions endeavor to cut off China from some of Nvidia's key chips, hindering China's AI advancement in turn. maker
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The U.S. is conducting a review of outbound investment, leading to regulations governing American investment in overseas corporations. Triolo noted that this executive order is likely to put limits on American investments concerning AI-related technologies, thus providing an indication of the path of U.S. technological control in the last two years of Biden's tenure.
ChatGPT, a product of American firm OpenAI, has caused a sensation globally and started off a type of AI contest between United States technology businesses, which Microsoft, one such investor, is part of, and Alphabet. Chinese technology corporations have paid attention. In the past few months, Chinese technology enterprises from Baidu to Alibaba have declared their aims and initiated examinations of their own ChatGPT competitors.
The Chinese government views AI development as a major focus and has introduced laws related to certain facets of its production to ensure compliance with Beijing's stringent web regulations. Nonetheless, China is still dedicated to promoting the local sector. Despite the U.S. attempting to obstruct China's access to core AI chips, Alibaba and Baidu have been constructing their own semiconductors. The effects of U.S. sanctions on these chips remains to be seen, so it is an aspect in which the government and tech corporations will be paying close attention.
China has accused the U.S. of breaching global trade regulations through its sanctions, calling the constraints on its chip sector "bullying". Washington has asserted that its actions are for national defense purposes and have been pinpointing particular sensitive technologies. Beijing has not taken a lot of retaliatory measures. Last month, Chinese regulators disallowed operators of "crucial info infrastructure" from buying chips from the American firm Micron, insisting the company's products did not pass a network security evaluation.
Technology was not much talked about when Blinken had a meeting with China's Xi, yet the two parties must have discussed it. Triolo told CNBC that the U.S. possibly raised matters relating to Micron's treatment while China would have raised the topic of export controls. Triolo remarked that Beijing considers the export controls and the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act to be a combination of strategies to detach China's semiconductor sector from the global semiconductor environment.
Right now, the two sides are essentially at an impasse.
Blinken discussed topics for collaboration between the U.S. and China, like the climate crisis and the economy, but technology remains an area where the two nations are competitors. Blinken noted on Monday, “It’s not in our interest to provide technology to China that could be used against us.” Likewise, Prakash mentioned that “China wants [things] the U.S. isn't going to give,” such as access to the chip ecosystem and a lack of examination of Chinese investment in U.S. technology, indicating that the battle for technological superiority between the two countries is entering "primetime." Both sides no longer believe that any disputes can be resolved, as the gap between the U.S. and China has grown so much that neither side is interested in making any compromises.
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